Because many models and data sources are combined to create results like. Topic 153 seismic hazard analysis university of alabama. Pdf a hazard assessment of the 1976 guatemala earthquake m 7. Deterministic safety analysis is an essential component of safety assessment, particularly for safety demonstration of the design of. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis of ahmedabad region has been carried out considering past earthquake data and available seismotectonic information. Alternative seismic hazard assessments seismic hazard analysis sha deterministic seismic hazard anal ysis dsha or neodsha. Estimation of seismic ground motions using deterministic. Engineering design must be done deterministically if one is to have seismic safety coupled with good engineering judgement.
An attempt was made to compile the occurrence of past and recent seismic activities within 300 km radius, around the dam site. Stated most simply, the seismic hazard source model is a description of the magnitude, location, and timing of all earthquakes usually limited to those that pose a significant threat. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha is a methodology that estimates the likelihood that various levels of earthquakecaused ground motions will be exceeded at a given location in a given future time period. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis gives a cap value for the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis for shallow earthquakes. There is a great deal of uncertainty about the location, size, and resulting shaking intensity of future earthquakes.
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha aims to quantify these uncertainties, and combine them to produce an explicit description of the distribution of future shaking. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha allows estimation of the likelihood that selected ground motion parameters will be exceeded, at a given site, within a reference time interval. Technical report prepared for the new zealand earthquake. On seismic hazard analysis of the two vulnerable regions in iran. The numericalanalytical approach to psha was first formalized by cornell 1968. This document is highly rated by students and has been viewed 414 times. Seismic hazard analysis for surat city and its surrounding region, gujarat 165 ghosh 2004, raghu kanth and iyengar 2006, ambazhagan et al. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis dsha is an approach for evaluating sitespecific seismic hazard that is influenced by the maximum hazard from the controlling sources affecting the specific study site. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis for the city of. Seismic hazard analysis involves the quantitative estimation of ground shaking hazards at a particular area. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha has become a fundamental tool in assessing seismic hazards and for estimating seismic design and seismic safety. Seismic hazard analysis is effective in presenting the po tentially damaging. A free powerpoint ppt presentation displayed as a flash slide show on id.
For example, a source model might be composed of n total earthquake scenarios en, where. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis cee 431ess465 deterministic seismic hazard analysis earliest approach taken to seismic hazard analysis originated in nuclear. The objective of t psha is to compute for a given exposure time. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis of gorakhpur region. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis dsha is an approach for evaluating sitespecific seismic hazard that is influenced by the maximum hazard from the controlling sources affecting the specific. Introduction the main purpose of the seismic hazard analysis sha is to quantify the potential damages and losses due to future earthquakes and their probabilities of occurrence.
Earthquake catalogue of the region covering 350 km radius around the ahmedabad city has been. More detailed, site specific studies will be required for higherlevel designs. In a normal seismic hazard analyses intended for the public, that of a maximum considered earthquake, or maximum considered event mce for a specific area, is an earthquake that is expected to occur once in approximately 2,500 years. An introduction to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Although seismic hazard and risk have often been used interchangeably, they are fundamentally different. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis for the state of haryana, india article pdf available in indian geotechnical journal 462. Fema 451b topic 5a handouts seismic hazard analysis 5 instructional material complementing fema 451, design examples seismic hazard analysis 5a 25 0. A hazard assessment of the 1976 guatemala earthquake m 7. Recommendations for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The seismic hazard assessment has been performed extensively in the past decades. Probability is needed to obtain operating basis earthquakes.
Analysis of large numbers of measured velocity profiles suggests the following. Ppt deterministic seismic hazard analysis powerpoint. An interdisciplinary approach was adopted by integrating. It represents a powerful tool that integrates over all earthquake occurrences in. International atomic energy agency, deterministic safety analysis for nuclear power plants, iaea safety standards series no. It is very important for public safety and mitigation of hazards due to destructions of infrastructures such as. Pdf deterministic seismic hazard analysis for the state. The first was the widely used deductive approach cornell, 1968 which integrates geological and geophysical information together with seismic event catalogues in the assessment of seismic hazards. If you need to print pages from this book, we recommend downloading it as a pdf. Such shocks occurred in both short or longer distances from corinth. Integrating outcomes from probabilistic and deterministic. A deterministic seismic hazard analysis for shallow earthquakes in greece. Intensity data are and should be still used as a supplement to the instrumental recordings. Krinitzsky waterways experiment station, geotechnical laboratory, vicksburg, ms, united states both the deterministic and probabilistic methods of seismic hazard analysis serve necessary purposes.
The indian state of haryana is in a phase of rapid industrial development. In order to help engineers and town planners in designing earthquake resistant structures, it is necessary to carry out site specific seismic hazard analysis and plan mitigation measures. Deterministic safety analysis for nuclear power plants iaea. The aim of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha is to measure the probability of over and above range of ground action levels at a site given all probable earthquakes.
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha is a methodology that estimates the likelihood that various levels of earthquakecaused ground motions will be. This section presents the framew section 1 one seismic risk analysis ork for the seismic risk analysis and discusses the results from this analysis. Mag, dist, number of standard deviation of ground motion. Appendix d probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for. Read chapter what is probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The first step in evaluating the seismic risk of the delta and suisun levees is to assess the seismic hazard of the site.
A seismic hazard is the probability that an earthquake will occur in a given geographic area, within a given window of time, and with ground motion intensity exceeding a given threshold. Method is good enough for measuring dynamic ground motion parameters which will help in. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha aims to quantify these uncertainties, and combine them to produce an explicit description of the distribution of future shaking that may occur at a site. Ganesha raj 3 abstract deterministic seismic hazard analysis dsha has been carried out by considering the historic earthquake, assumed subsurface fault length and point source synthetic ground motion generation model. Obtain catalog of appropriate ground motion records 2. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using the logic tree approach. Ictpiaea advanced workshop on earthquake engineering for nuclear facilities 30 november 4 december 2009.
The probabilistic method a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha ncorporates the element of time in the assessment f the earthquake threat at a site. Development of the caltrans deterministic pga map and caltrans ars online tom shantz, division of research and innovation. Introduction to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis stanford. The first basic step in seismic hazard analysis is to collect the input data on tectonics and seismicity and on ground motion scaling models. Two kinds of seismic hazard analysis were investigated in this study. However, information has been accumulating which shows convincingly that psha is a defective procedure. Hazard anticipated ground motion at siteanticipated ground motion at site risk damage or losses to societydamage or losses to society probabilisitic considers uncertainty in input parameters e. Sitespecific deterministic seismic hazard analysis of surabaya, indonesia. The most comprehensive treatment to date is the sshac 1997. A deterministic seismic hazard analysis has been carried out for various sites of the major cities ahmedabad, surat, bhuj, jamnagar and junagadh of the gujarat region in india to compute the seismic hazard exceeding a certain level in terms of peak ground acceleration pga and to estimate maximum possible pga at each site at bed. Introduction to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Seismic hazard analysis of vulnerable countries on the alpinehimalayan.
Seismic hazard and risk assessment of turkey sevgi ozcebe1, vitor silva2, helen crowley 3 abstract turkey, being located in a highly seismically active region, has experienced several devastating earthquakes throughout its history. In the present paper seismic hazard analysis has been presented using deterministic method. Fema 451b topic 5a notes seismic hazard analysis instructional material complementing fema 451, design examples seismic hazard analysis 5a ground motion attenuation steps to obtain empirical relationship 1. Additionally, recent seismic source and groundmotion characterization studies have led. More specifically, sha states the probability that an intensity measure type imt will exceed some intensity measure level iml. Why is probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha still. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis of the region. Probabilistic versus deterministic seismic hazard analysis. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis for the state of. The schedule for the seismic hazard map update was largely driven by the need to incorporate. The procedure for carrying out psha has been demonstrated by.
Two approaches of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment were applied. An introduction to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha. The input from seismic hazard analysis is then used for. Development of the caltrans deterministic pga map and. Probablistic seismic hazard analysis psha and the detemininstic seismic hazard analysis dsha. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis notes for is made by best teachers who have written some of the best books of. Seismic hazard analysis of district headquarters dhamtari. Abstract seismic hazard analysis is a method of quantifying the area in terms of topographical and seismological data. Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard assessment are frequently represented as irreconcilably different approaches to the problem of calculating earthquake ground motions for design, each method fervently defended by its proponents. Although the indian standard code 45 divides the state of haryana in three seismic zones of ii, iii and iv, indicating a maximum peak ground acceleration pga value of 0. Pdf deterministic seismic hazard analysis considering non. Pdf a deterministic seismic hazard analysis for shallow. Nuclear power plant design and seismic safety considerations anthony andrews.
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha is a methodology that estimates the likelihood that various levels of earthquakecaused ground motion will be. Seismic hazard describes phenomena generated by earthquakes that have potential to cause harm, but seismic risk is the likelihood chance of. The following two paragraphs are a paraphrase from kramer 1996. This lecture is the first in a twopart series introducing the topic of seismic hazard analysis. An example in the new madrid seismic zone of the central united states zhenming wang1 abstract seismic hazard and risk are fundamentally different concepts. Doctoral thesis, nanyang technological university, singapore. Kamali asl department of civil engineering, sharif university of technology, tehran. Considering the uncertainty of earthquake magnitude, the designbasis fault displacements corresponding to the different pipeline classes are proposed to improve deterministic seismic hazard analysis dsha. The purpose of this document is to discuss the calculations involved in psha, and the motivation for using this approach. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis considering non. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis dsha initial approach taken to seismic risk investigation discovered in nuclear power engineering applications in deterministic seismic hazard analysis dsha, is organized for a meticulous earthquake, also realistic or assumed. An approach that is free from regionalizing the seismotectonic sources has been. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis code verification pacific. The assessment was based on the environmental effects that had effectively contributed to the high destructive impact of that event.
Nuclear power plant design and seismic safety considerations. The probabilistic seismic hazard analyses remain fundamentally limited in their dependability. Pdf deterministic seismic hazard analysis of ahmedabad. The field of seismic hazard analysis, reing the main compcnent ex pra studies, has profited greatly from this development. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis and estimation of pha for bangalore city t. Seismic hazards can be analyzed deterministically as and when a particular earthquake scenario is assumed, or probabilistically, in which uncertainties in earthquake size, location, and time of occurrence are explicitly considered kramer, 1996. Guptaa seismic hazard maps have been prepared for northeast india based on the uniform hazard response spectra for absolute acceleration at stiff sites. Seismic hazard and seismic risk in the united states earthquake hazard and emergency management 42 familiarity of the fundamental issues involved with determining the potential losses from earthquake hazards. Joint ictpiaea advanced workshop on earthquake engineering for nuclear facilities. Fema 451b topic 5a notes seismic hazard analysis 11 instructional material complementing fema 451, design examples seismic hazard analysis 5a 11 attenuation with distance note the difference between site amplification and attenuation. Seismic hazard analysis class notes, engineering, semester notes edurev is made by best teachers of. Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analyses in. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis for the city of corinthcentral greece 3 correspond to earthquake magnitudes between 6.
The hazard in using probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for engineering ellis l. The simplest approach in trying to determine the correlation between significant seismic events, with active faults, is the estimation of their. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of northeast india. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis and estimation of.
A dsha involves the development of a particular seismic scenario upon which a ground motion hazard evaluation is based. With a hazard thus estimated, risk can be assessed and included in such areas as building codes for standard buildings, designing larger buildings and infrastructure projects, land use planning and determining. Nov 14, 2015 apr 09, 2020 deterministic seismic hazard analysis notes edurev is made by best teachers of. Issues and alternatives zhenming wang 1 abstractseismic hazard and risk are two very important concepts in engineering design and other policy considerations. This document is highly rated by students and has been viewed 775 times. What is probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha. We also used two frequencymagnitude models to evaluate earthquake source potential in our psha. A sincere effort is made herein to do seismic hazard analysis for ballar dam of chattisgarh state. One should then decide the methodology of hazard analysis, which may be deterministic scenario earthquake or probabilistic an ensemble of earthquakes. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for christchurch soil sites report prepared by bradley seismic ltd.
However, the deterministic method can provide evaluations that are at a practical level for engineering. In this study, we have evaluated the probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard for the city of almaty, the largest city in kazakhstan, which has a population of nearly two million people. Choose the largest ground motion from cases considered. The results of such an analysis are expressed as estimated probabilities per year or estimated annual frequencies. The goal of seismic hazard analysis sha is to state the probability that something of concern will occur given one or more earthquakes. On seismic hazard analysis of the two vulnerable regions in. A suggested classroom reading and homework assignment for this session are included. Unfortunately, this book cant be printed from the openbook. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis dsha and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis.
Deterministic seismic hazard analysis notes edurev. Seismic hazard analysis for urban christchurch accounting for the 20102011 canterbury earthquake sequence. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis of the region ijert. Sitespecific deterministic seismic hazard analysis of. The goal of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha is to quantify the rate or probability of exceeding various groundmotion levels at a site or a map of sites given all possible earthquakes. State of art of seismic design and seismic hazard analysis. Unlike deterministic seismic hazard analysis dsha, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha allows uncertainties in the size, magnitude, location, site condition, and rate of recurrence of earthquakes to be considered in the evaluation of seismic hazards for a. Seismic hazard analysis for surat city and its surrounding. Nuclear power plant design and seismic safety considerations congressional research service summary the earthquake and subsequent tsunami that devastated japans fukushima daiichi nuclear power. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been practically unchallenged since its inception three decades ago. Even though it has never been validated by objective testing, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha has been widely used for almost 50 years by governments and industry in applications with lives and property hanging in the balance, such as deciding safety criteria for nuclear power plants, making official national hazard maps, developing building code requirements, and determining. Deterministic versus probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Pdf deterministic seismic hazard analysis for the state of.
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